Weather information as of October 12, 2026. US regional forecasts draw on NOAA's October 15 seasonal outlook.
You may have heard El Niño mentioned more often lately, in weather reports, news stories, or conversations about the coming winter. This year's event is attracting attention because it is strengthening and could reach exceptional intensity.
The coming months may bring more rain to some regions, drier conditions to others, and milder winter temperatures across parts of North America. Those changes can affect the weather we usually associate with a season.
Here is what makes this El Niño unusual, how the regional forecasts compare, and how TCM understands winter nourishment, dampness, and heat.
What Makes This El Niño Unusual?
El Niño is a recurring climate pattern involving the tropical Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere. Surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become warmer than usual, accompanied by changes in winds and rainfall. Together, these changes influence weather thousands of miles away.
It usually occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to twelve months.
In its October 8 report, NOAA noted sea surface temperatures more than 4°C above average in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific. Forecasters estimated a greater than 83% chance of strong to very strong El Niño conditions continuing through January–March 2027.
NOAA also sees a high chance of a historic peak that could exceed earlier events in records dating back to 1950, as measured by its current relative ocean-temperature index. This potential strength is what makes the event particularly noteworthy.
A Global Event, Different Local Seasons
During El Niño, parts of Australia, Indonesia, and southern Asia often become drier. Parts of western South America, including Peru and Ecuador, can receive heavier rainfall. Northern parts of North America often have milder winters, while the southern US tends to become wetter.
These are recurring tendencies associated with El Niño. Regional forecasts provide a more specific picture of this year's coming months.
As the Northern Hemisphere approaches winter, the Southern Hemisphere moves toward summer. The same change in the Pacific can accompany very different seasons at home.
This Fall and Winter Across the US
El Niño's influence on US weather is usually most noticeable in winter. NOAA's October 15 outlook favors wetter conditions across much of the South and along the East Coast, with milder temperatures across many northern states.
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California: Rain normally returns during the cooler months after the dry summer. This winter, forecasts favor above-average precipitation across much of the state. Northern California also has a higher chance of warmer-than-average temperatures.
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Texas and the Southern Plains: TA wetter winter is more likely across much of the Southern Plains, while temperatures could fall above, near, or below their usual averages. Across parts of the region, the temperature outlook gives similar chances to warmer, near-average, or cooler conditions.
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Gulf Coast and Southeast: Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across much of the region. Temperatures across parts of the Southeast, including Florida, are expected to remain closer to their usual winter averages. The wetter outlook also extends northward along the East Coast.
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Northern States: Many northern states have a higher chance of a milder winter on average, including the Pacific Northwest, Midwest, and Great Lakes region. Cold spells and winter storms remain part of the season. Parts of the northern Rockies and Great Lakes region lean toward drier conditions.
These forecasts compare average temperatures and accumulated rain or snow from December 2026 through February 2027 with the usual conditions for that time of year.
Looking Ahead to Summer 2027
NOAA's October 15 outlook favors El Niño continuing through spring 2027, including the March–May period. Neutral conditions become more likely for May–July as the event weakens.
As El Niño weakens, longer-term climate trends also help shape the summer outlook. Forecasts closer to the season will offer a clearer picture of what to expect where you live.
Seasonal Wellness When the Weather Changes
Traditional Chinese Medicine considers the time of year, local climate, and individual constitution together. Cold, heat, dryness, and dampness are part of its vocabulary for describing environmental influences and patterns in the body.
A winter that differs from familiar conditions gives us a reason to look more closely at the ideas behind seasonal care.
Winter Nourishment and "Storage"
In TCM, winter is associated with storage and conservation. As plants become dormant and nature's activity slows, winter wellness emphasizes preserving and nourishing the body's reserves. Rest, gentle activity, and keeping the body warm are part of this tradition, along with avoiding excessive sweating.
Food offers another form of nourishment. In TCM's Five Flavors, the sweet flavor is associated with nourishment and replenishment. Jujubes and chestnuts are familiar examples. The Four Natures describe a separate quality: whether a food is considered cold, cool, warm, or hot. Ginger, cinnamon, and lamb are traditionally used for their warming qualities, particularly in the care of cold and yang-deficient patterns.
A milder winter gives us a reason to reconsider the familiar habit of eating warming foods. Winter's emphasis on conserving reserves remains relevant, while warming nourishment serves the more specific purpose of addressing cold.
Heat, Dampness, and Digestion
Where warmer weather coincides with humid conditions, heat and dampness become additional considerations in TCM seasonal care.
From this perspective, the Spleen and Stomach deserve attention because their traditional functions include digestion and the transformation and transport of nutrients and fluids. Damp-heat is described in TCM as interfering with these functions, with signs such as bloating after small meals, sticky stools, bodily heaviness, and sluggishness. People with a longstanding tendency toward weak digestion may find these experiences more noticeable in warm, damp conditions.
This connects the discussion of seasonal weather with the TCM emphasis on supporting the Spleen and resolving dampness. Food-based care favors lighter meals with fewer rich, greasy foods, heavily sweetened treats, and iced drinks. Foods such as mung beans, celery, and pumpkin can appear in this approach, with dandelion tea traditionally used to clear heat.
Warm Weather and Emotional Life
TCM traditionally associates winter with nourishing the Kidney, which stores essence and supports the body's yang. The Kidney can be understood metaphorically as an energy bank: summer's activity draws on the body's reserves, while winter emphasizes replenishment and conservation.
Summer is associated with the Heart and fire. The Heart governs blood and vessels and houses the shen, often translated as spirit, linking it with mental and emotional life. Excessive Heart fire is traditionally associated with restlessness and irritability.
When winter weather remains unusually warm, heat-related restlessness can also enter the seasonal discussion. Alongside winter conservation, TCM gives attention to calming the mind and clearing Heart fire where signs of heat are present.
Gentle movement fits this approach. Within traditional TCM explanations, light perspiration can help disperse dampness, while winter conservation emphasizes avoiding exhausting activity and excessive sweating. The emphasis is on comfortable movement and a calmer daily rhythm.
Seasonal Wellness in a Changing Climate
In Traditional Chinese Medicine, seasonal care follows the changing conditions of the natural world. Winter brings an emphasis on conserving and nourishing the body's reserves, while local weather shapes the season's balance of cold, warmth, dryness, and dampness.
At dipara, living in step with the seasons is one of the principles behind our approach to everyday care. This year's El Niño gives us a reason to look more closely at the weather where we live and how it relates to the habits we associate with the season.
